Mapping the Military Dimension of the Pivot to Asia

In late 2011, Hillary Clinton announced that the United States would begin to pivot its economic, military, and diplomatic assets towards the Asia-Pacific. The announcement, which coincided with the drawdown of U.S. forces in the Middle East, was intended to update American foreign policy to reflect the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region.

While Clinton’s announcement was well received by most of the region’s states, it was greeted with considerable suspicion and distrust in China. Of particular concern for Beijing, the military element of the pivot seemed squarely aimed at responding to China’s growing regional dominance. In some quarters of the Chinese government, it was even argued that the United States was aiming to contain China, much like it had worked contain the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Pivot to Asia (2014) Map
Although the military dimension of the pivot to Asia certainly represents a distinct shift in strategy, most of the ensuing changes have been relatively modest. While there has been a slight growth in the number of American assets deployed in region, the U.S. has primarily concentrated on building partnerships with regional states. Both of these developments are certainly aimed at influencing China’s behavior, but they are a far cry from an effort at containment. Indeed, the U.S. and its allies appear to be making a conscientious effort to avoid such an appearance by limiting the scope and pace of military deployments and repeatedly stressing that containment is not, in fact, one of the United States’ objectives.

Pivoting From a Position of Strength

The U.S. military has long maintained an active presence across much of the Asia-Pacific. In addition to running a number of major bases in its Pacific territories (Hawaii, Guam, and Alaska), the U.S. has maintained a significant number of troops in Japan since the end of the Second World War and in South Korea since the end of the Korean War. It also has long standing defense pacts with a number of nations—including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Thailand—and active military relations with a number of others, like Singapore. Though officially recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the sole government of China, the U.S. has also continued to supply Taiwan with defensive arms and used the threat of potential intervention to prevent Beijing from considering forceful reunification.

Building on its already substantial regional commitments, the United States has gradually begun to expand its military footprint since the pivot was announced. There are three major components to this expansion. First, the U.S. has reached agreements to expand its presence in a number of territories, including the Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. It has also proposed or discussed similar arrangements with Thailand and Vietnam. Second, it has begun to shift its naval assets towards the region. As then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced in 2012, the navy plans to base 60 per cent of its fleet in the Pacific (up from the then-50 per cent) by 2020, including six of its ten aircraft carriers. Finally, the U.S. has expanded the number of military exercises and port visits that it conducts in the region. In 2011, for example, U.S. Pacific Command conducted 172 different military exercises involving 24 different nations—a number which it has continued to build upon. It has even begun to include the People’s Liberation Army in some of its larger drills, such as the multilateral Cobra Gold and Rim of the Pacific exercises. Taken together, these military elements support the overarching objectives of the pivot to Asia, which the administration has identified as the desire to “sustain a stable security environment and a regional order rooted in economic openness, peaceful resolution of disputes, and respect for universal rights and freedoms."

Expanding upon these three major elements, the following section (and above map) breaks down the military dimension of the pivot on a country-by-country basis.

Japan

The U.S.-Japan security alliance, which was forged in the aftermath of the Second World War, remains the United States most important regional relationship. Reflecting this status, Japan is currently home to more U.S. troops than any other location outside of the United States. At the end of 2013, over 50,000 U.S. troops located at roughly 90 different military facilities were based in Japan. Yokosuka, Japan is also home to the U.S. 7th Fleet and the navy’s only permanently forward deployed aircraft carrier, the USS George Washington.

Roughly half of all U.S. personnel in Japan are currently based in Okinawa, which is strategically located in the East China Sea, close to both Taiwan and the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The presence of U.S. troops in Okinawa is, however, contentious, as many of the islands inhabitants have grown weary of the U.S. presence. Attempting to address the islanders’ concerns, the U.S. and Japanese governments have worked to move existing American facilities away from populated areas, but this effort has resulted in protracted political and legal wrangling. Nevertheless, both the Obama administration and the government of Shinzo Abe appear committed to making the move happen. Although this will ultimately result in the redeployment of some U.S. troops to Guam, it will help secure the U.S. presence in Okinawa for years to come. This will, in turn, ensure that the U.S. can continue to quickly react to developing situations in Taiwan or the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—both potential regional flashpoints.

Japan has also committed to purchasing 42 of Lockheed Martin’s next generation stealth fighter, the F-35. The final number will, however, depend on the final cost of jets, which has risen considerably in recent years. Nevertheless, Japan’s decision to purchase the jets is an important one. In addition to strengthening ties between the U.S. and Japanese defense industries, the F-35s will enhance interoperability between Japanese and U.S. forces, as the F-35s are designed to share battlefield information amongst themselves.

South Korea

After Japan and Hawaii, South Korea is home to the third most American troops in the Asia-Pacific—roughly 28,000 in all. While primarily deployed to guard against potential North Korean provocations, U.S. forces in Korea have gained increased flexibility over the past decade, as the U.S. has consolidated its military bases and handed most frontline duties over to the South Koreans. Completing this transfer, the U.S. is slated to return responsibility for wartime command of South Korean forces to Seoul in 2015, though this may be delayed because of renewed concerns about North Korea. Taken together, these changes have left U.S. forces better positioned to respond to a variety of regional developments, while still maintaining their ability to respond to provocations by North Korea.

South Korea, like Japan, has also committed to purchasing a number of F-35s. As of March 2014, South Korea had ordered 40 F-35s.

Australia

Although a long-time American ally, the U.S. has only recently sought to reestablish a major presence in Australia. Shortly after Clinton announced the pivot to Asia, President Obama travelled to Australia to announce that the United States planned to regularly rotate up to 2,500 marines through Darwin, which is located on Australia’s northern coast. The announcement, made before the Australian parliament, remains the biggest new troop deployment since the pivot was announced, though the first troops did not begin to arrive until earlier this year.

The United States and Australia have also discussed several other proposals in recent years, including using HMAS Stirling (near Perth) as a forward operating base for U.S. nuclear submarines and potentially even carriers. Nothing has been formalized yet, though. As a recent report noted, one of the benefits of being able to use HMAS Stirling is that it sits outside the operational range of most of China’s planes, diesel submarines, and ballistic missiles, while still offering convenient access to much of the region. The base would, however, need retrofits before accommodating U.S. ships.

Another proposal being considered is using Australia’s Cocos Islands as a replacement for the U.S.’s current Indian Ocean base on Diego Garcia, which may be forced to close at the end of 2016. Located south of Sumatra, the Cocos Islands are ideally located for conducting manned and unmanned surveillance operations over the contested-South China Sea.

Of all of the U.S.’s Pacific partners, Australia has ordered the largest number of F-35s—72 in total now.

Singapore

Strategically located next to the Strait of Malacca, Singapore has become an increasingly important partner in recent years. Building on a 2005 strategic framework agreement, which allowed the U.S. military to continue using facilities within Singapore, Singapore recently agreed to host four littoral combat ships. The ships, the first of which arrived in 2012, will enhance the U.S.’s ability to participate in anti-piracy operations in the Strait of Malacca, which roughly 40 per cent of the world’s trade flows through.

Singapore has also participated in the F-35 program since 2003 and is rumored to be considering buying a number of F-35Bs, the short take off and vertical landing versions of the jet.

Philippines

Colored by the legacy of American colonialism, the U.S.-Philippines alliance has always been a complicated one. Expelled from its major bases after the end of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Philippines only recently signed a new 10-year security pact, which will allow the U.S. to rotate more troops, ships, and planes through the Philippines. Though the specifics have yet to be finalized, “the United States is expected to gradually deploy combat ships, a squadron of F18s or F16s and maritime surveillance aircraft,” according to a source interviewed by Reuters.

While the U.S. had initially hoped to return to its old bases at Subic Bay on the northern island of Luzon, the Philippines recently suggested that the U.S. Navy use (and fund improvements for) the Philippine base at Oyster Bay, which is much closer to the disputed Spratly Islands.

Even prior to the new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, military ties between the U.S. and the Philippines had grown considerably in recent years. A total of 149 navy ships visited the Philippines in 2013 up from 68 the year before. In 2011, the U.S. also sold the Philippines a pair of excess Hamilton-class coastguard cutters, which have played a key role in skirmishes between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands.

Thailand

Although a longstanding defense partner, Thailand’s relationship with the U.S. has been complicated by the military’s recent overthrow of the country’s democratically elected government. The U.S. has, as a result, moved to suspend all military ties with Thailand.

Prior to the coup, however, the U.S. and Thailand had enjoyed robust and growing military ties. In addition to hosting the annual Cobra Gold Military exercise with the U.S., Thailand had recently discussed allowing the U.S. expand its presence at U-Tapao—a former transit point used during the Vietnam War.

New Zealand

In 2012, U.S. troops returned to New Zealand for the first time since the ANZUS (Australian-New Zealand-U.S.) alliance collapsed in 1984. The countries also signed a pair of agreements pledging cooperation on security issues in the Asia-Pacific and establishing new a forum for security related dialogue.

While a renewal of the ANZUS alliance does not appear to be in the cards and American ships remained banned from New Zealand waters, ties are warmer than they have been in years. In addition to fighting together in Afghanistan, U.S. and New Zealand troops have participated in a number of military exercises together since military ties were reinstated in 2009.

India

Military-to-military ties between the United States and India have grown considerably since the early 2000s. Viewing India as a potential counterbalance to China’s growing power, the U.S. has sought to initiate a wide range of contacts with India’s military establishment; the U.S. now participates in significant number of military exercises with Indian forces.

India, which is the world’s largest importer of arms, has also become an increasingly important purchaser of American made military goods, though Russia continues to be India’s primary supplier of foreign arms. In 2011, for example, India inked a deal to purchase over four billion dollars in C-17 Globemasters, an American made heavy transport plane.

British Indian Ocean Territory

The United States shares a large ship and submarine base with the British on Diego Garcia, which is currently home to over 500 American troops. The future of the facility is, however, uncertain. The U.S. lease expires in 2016; it remains unclear if it will be renewed, as the U.K is under pressure to return the island to Mauritius. Preparing for this possibility, the U.S. has begun to explore potential replacement facilities, such as Australia’s Cocos Islands.

Indonesia

U.S-Indonesian security collaboration currently revolves around the twin pillars of peacekeeping and counter-terrorism. Both the victims of al-Qaeda linked terrorists in the early 2000s, the U.S. and Indonesia have since forged a substantial partnership dedicated to tackling terrorist networks in Southeast Asia. The other major pillar of U.S. military engagement with Indonesia is support for its peacekeeping efforts. Jakarta is currently the largest contributor to U.N. peacekeeping forces in Southeast Asia. Supporting Indonesia’s contributions to the U.N., the U.S. has helped fund the creation of a multi-use training facility in the town of Bogor, including the construction of three 300 bed barracks.

The U.S. and Indonesia have also begun to explore cooperation in other areas, including arms transfers and sales. After President Bush lifted the ban on military transfers to Indonesia in 2005, Congress approved $6 million in grants and loans for weapons and military equipment needed by the Indonesian navy for maritime security. More recently, the U.S. has decided to give Jakarta two dozen excess F-16s, which will be upgraded with weapons and engines purchased from American suppliers. These upgrades are projected to be worth $750 million.

Taiwan

The military relationship between the United States and Taiwan is a complicated one. Though officially supporting a ‘One China’ policy, the U.S has insisted that the Taiwan issue must be settled in a peaceful manner. To this end, the U.S. Congress enacted the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, which stipulated that the U.S. should provide Taiwan with defensive arms and maintain the capacity to prevent Taiwan’s forceful reunification. Maintaining this commitment, President Obama has agreed to sell two separate packages of arms to Taiwan since coming to office—$6.4 billion worth of arms in 2010 and $5.9 billion worth of arms in 2011. Obama did, however, back down from selling Taiwan upgraded F-16 C/D fighter jets, as both Taiwan and many in Congress had requested. The decision was seen by many to be a direct concession to China, which had warned the U.S. against such a sale.

Either way, the decision would have done little to change the balance of power across the Strait of Taiwan, which has shifted heavily in Beijing’s favor over the past decade. More importantly, it is the U.S.’s implicit threat to intervene in any attempt at forceful reunification that continues to discourage the PRC from considering aggression.

Vietnam

Despite a bitter history, the U.S. and Vietnam have become increasingly close in recent year. Looking to help Vietnam secure its maritime territories—large swathes of which are contested by China— the U.S. has provided Hanoi with $18 million to enhance its coastal patrol units and search and rescue forces. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has sought greater access to naval facilities at Cam Ranh, which was one of the major ports used by the U.S. during the Vietnam War. Although Vietnam already allows non-combat ships to dock at Cam Ranh, the navy would like Vietnam to relax its remaining restrictions. Vietnam, for its part, has lobbied the U.S. to lift existing prohibitions on the sale of lethal military goods to Vietnam.

Malaysia

President Obama recently wrapped up the first presidential visit to Malaysia since Bill Clinton visited in 1998. Although there are only a handful of U.S. troops stationed in Malaysia at the moment, Malaysia has recently become a regular participant in regional military exercises sponsored by the U.S. military, such as Cobra Gold, which it joined in 2012, and the Rim of the Pacific, which it joined in 2010. Port visits by U.S. naval ships have also increased in recent years, going from just a handful of visits a decade ago to over thirty in 2012. American and Malaysian forces also cooperated in the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370.

Cambodia

After reestablishing military cooperation in 2006, American engagement with Cambodian forces has increased steadily. In 2007, the navy made its first port calls to Cambodia in over three decades. Then, in 2010, Cambodia co-hosted its first large scale multilateral peacekeeping exercise with the United States. Dubbed ‘Angkor Sentinel,’ the exercise has become an annual affair.

Papua New Guinea

In addition to providing training to the Papua New Guinea Defense Force, the U.S. and Papua New Guinea have held a number of small scale training exercises in recent years. Papua New Guinea has also participated alongside the U.S. in a number of multinational exercises, such as the ‘Southern Katipo’ exercise held in New Zealand in 2013.

Mongolia

In return for supporting US led coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan—where 350 Mongolian troops recently completed their tenth rotation of the war—the U.S. spends roughly $2 million a year on equipment and $1 million a year on training for Mongolian forces. Looking to further expand their existing cooperation, Defense Secretary Hagel visited Ulan Bator in April 2014 and signed a joint vision statement pledging to provide additional military training and assistance in coming years.

No comments:

Post a Comment