Prediction: 70 per cent chance that Afghanistan will sign the BSA before November 1, 2014
Both of the candidates vying to become the next President of Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, have said that they intend to sign the agreement, which would secure continued economic and military support from the United States. While some of my teammates have expressed doubt that the BSA will be signed within the specified time frame, I am a little more optimistic that the current election crises can be resolved and the treaty can be signed in a timely fashion.
Taking the current situation on the ground into account, I have laid out a rough timeline of how the process will likely unfold:
September 10-12. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) announces the result of the vote audit. The IEC is currently 80 per cent of the way through recounting votes. They project that they will be done by September 10th. Further delays are unlikely, as both candidates have withdrawn thier election observers, so there is little chance squabbling over procedure will slow the audit down. I would expect the results to be announced soon after the count is finished.
End of September. New government is sworn in. I don't anticipate much delay between the completion of the election audit and the swearing in of the new president. Per Article 6 of the Afghan Constitution, Karzai’s term actually expired a couple of months ago, and he seems eager to hand over authority.
October. Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is signed. Signing the BSA is a fairly symbolic gesture. It only commits Afghanistan to refrain from acts that would defeat the object and purpose of the treaty, pending full ratification. Signing treaties is also within the authority of the President. Per Article 90(5) of the Constitution, the National Assembly only needs to be involved at the ratification stage.
Once sworn in, the new President will be under a considerable pressure from both foreign and domestic sources to quickly sign the BSA. Uncertainty about the future of the American presence in Afghanistan has played havoc with the economy and bolstered the Taliban’s morale. Signing the treaty would end this uncertainty. Memories of the disastrous result of the Soviet withdrawal in the late 80s are also likely to encourage the new president to sign the agreement (the ongoing collapse in Iraq may also play a role).
It also helps that the November 2013 loya jirga (which included practically all of the important factions within the Afghan government) already endorsed the wording of the agreement.
Potential Spoilers
The biggest risk to the timeline that I've laid out is that the losing candidate won’t accept the result of the vote audit, which would delay the swearing in of the new president. There is certainly some chance that this could happen. Abdullah Abdullah, the likely loser, has already withdrawn his observers from the election audit because of frustration over the criteria used to weed out fraudulent ballots. He may, as a result, be unwilling to accept the IEC’s recount.
That being said, Abdullah Abdullah expressed the same concerns in the first round of the 2009 election (in which he also came second), and ultimately declined to go forward with a second round of balloting. If Ghani agrees to incorporate Abdullah into his government, as the U.S is urging, he may agree to concede quietly again.
Updating Strategy
If there are any delays to the timeline that I’ve laid out, I plan on adjusting my prediction downward (and the opposite if things go well). The candidates' reactions to the IEC’s election audit will be a particularly important moment. If the loser accepts the results, things are likely to go smoothly. If not, it becomes less likely that the BSA will be signed by the start of November.
[This post is the latest in a series of posts documenting my predictions for the Good Judgement Project]
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