When disputes arise between nations, national leaders have host of options at their disposal, ranging from lodging official protest to launching negotiations and from international legal mechanisms to economic sanctions. In the most extreme circumstances, they may even resort to threats, displays or uses of militarized force to achieve their objectives
Thankfully, such events tend to be rare, as resorting to force carries a variety of costs. When such incidents do occur, however, they can be exceptionally dangerous, as they have the potential to lead to considerable death and destruction. Understanding why and when nations resort to the use of force is, as a result, of considerable interest. And, the more powerful and capable the nation in question is, the greater the interest there is in understanding its decision making.
Militarized Disputes Involving China
To get a better sense of recent militarized incidents involving China, I turned to the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) dataset. The dataset—which catalogues interstate disputes involving the threat, display, or use of military force—records 54 militarized incidents involving China between 1993 and 2010 (the last year for which records are available).
Each of these 54 disputes has been summarized and placed on the map and timeline above (click on each incident to bring up a summary of the incident).
Clusters of Conflict
As the map above illustrates, there were at least three distinct clusters of conflict involving China between 1993 and 2010. The first cluster centres around the Taiwan Strait and the long simmering confrontation between the Chinese and Taiwanese governments. The second cluster is spread across the waters of the South and East China Seas where a number of nations have laid overlapping claim to the islands within. The third cluster runs along the border between North Korea and China, which has often witnessed periods of heightened tension.
1) The Taiwan Strait. Between 1993 and 2010, the ongoing tension between mainland China and Taiwan was the most active source of militarized incidents involving China, including some fairly serious disputes. In 1996, for example, China's attempt to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate by conducting missile tests and military exercises quickly escalated and ultimately led the U.S. to intervene by sailing a pair of carrier groups through the Taiwan Strait.
There has not, however, been a serious militarized incident between the two nations since the mid-2000s, as Taiwan has elected a series of pro-Chinese governments in recent years.
2) The South and East China Seas. There are a much larger number of players involved in the disputed East and South China Seas. As things currently stand, six littoral parties—Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and China—have laid claim to either some or all of the islands, reefs, and shoals of the South China Sea (including the Spratly Archipelago, the Scarborough Shoal, and the Paracel Islands). These overlapping claims have led a number of militarized incidents between China and other claimants over the years, as the contesting parties have sought to control the region's resources and shipping lanes. Of the contesting parties, Vietnam and the Philippines have clashed with China the most frequently.
Japan and China, meanwhile, have repeatedly clashed in the East China Sea over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are currently controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.
3) North Korea. The relationship between China and North Korea is a complicated one, and China has resorted to militarized action to both support and coerce the North over the past two decades. In 1993, for example, China practiced military landings on the Korean peninsula, in order to show its support for the North. Then, in 2002, China forced its way into a Japanese and South Korean embassies to seize and return several North Koreans that were seeking asylum there. The very next year, however, China mobilized troops along the North Korean border to pressure the North during tense negotiations over its nuclear program.
North Korea, for its part, has also initiated military action against China on a number of occasions, though its reasoning has sometimes been less than clear.
4) Others. In addition to the major clusters identified above, China has also been involved in a smattering of other minor disputes, involving a range of players and issues. China and the U.S., for example, have both resorted to displays of force over the issue of whether or not the U.S. military can conduct maritime surveillance in China's exclusive economic zone. China and India have also had an uneasy relationship, and India has mobilized troops near the tri-junction of China, India, and Bhutan on a number of occasions in response to rumoured Chinese incursions.
Future Trends
All three of the major areas identified above remain potentially dangerous flash-points. In the case of Taiwan, any substantial move towards independence has the potential to trigger a Chinese reaction and potentially even an invasion. China is certainly preparing for such an eventuality. As the U.S. Department of Defence's annual report on China notes, the People's Liberation Army continues to regard the forceful reunification of Taiwan as its primary mission. While the base potential for a major clash or invasion remains low (particularly while economic relations remain healthy), the ramifications of such an incident would be considerable.
The resolution of the ongoing disputes over the disputed islands of the East and South China Seas also seems unlikely. While there have been a number of formal and informal efforts to manage/resolve the ongoing tension over the past two decades, little actual progress has been made. If anything, China has become even more aggressive about pursuing its claims in the region in recent years. This increasingly assertive posture is being driven by a combination of factors, including China's rapidly developing maritime capabilities, the growing strategic importance of the South China Sea, and the rise of nationalist sentiment within China. As none of these factors are likely to change anytime soon, periodic low level skirmishes between the various claimants are likely to continue.
Relations between China and the North, meanwhile, have appeared to cool since North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong-un, executed his uncle (who had close links to China). It also appears increasingly unlikely that North Korea's new leader will embrace Chinese style economic reform, as some had initially hoped. Kim Jong-un has instead engaged in a series or provocative maneuvers designed to consolidate his hold over the military and secure foreign aid and other concessions from the West. These provocations often put China in a difficult spot—forcing it to choose between supporting its neighbour and cooperating with the international community. It is hard to say, however, if lines of communication between China and North Korea have broken down badly enough for either side to resort to force to make a point.
Technical Stuff
For the purposes of the map above, a militarized interstate dispute (MID) is a “set of interactions between or among states involving threats to use military force, displays of military force, or actual uses of military force.” Such interactions must also be government sanctioned in order to be considered MIDs. As a result, events like unsanctioned border incidents—which happen from time to time—are not included in the map above, unless they provoked an officially sanctioned military response.
Location data for disputes between 1993 and 2001 was drawn from the MID location dataset assembled by Alex Braithwaite, though some of the locations were subsequently modified. The location data for disputes after 2001, meanwhile, were manually generated by me. All locations are, of course, approximate. In some cases, location information about disputes was vague. In others, disputes occurred over a large area, so an approximate central location was chosen to represent the dispute.
What's Next?
I'm working on expanding the map to include more recent years. It will, however, be awhile before I have any major updates, as the current MID dataset ends in 2010. In order to add more recent disputes, I'm going to have to put the data together by hand, which is going to entail a fair bit of leg work.
SourcesRelations between China and the North, meanwhile, have appeared to cool since North Korea's new leader, Kim Jong-un, executed his uncle (who had close links to China). It also appears increasingly unlikely that North Korea's new leader will embrace Chinese style economic reform, as some had initially hoped. Kim Jong-un has instead engaged in a series or provocative maneuvers designed to consolidate his hold over the military and secure foreign aid and other concessions from the West. These provocations often put China in a difficult spot—forcing it to choose between supporting its neighbour and cooperating with the international community. It is hard to say, however, if lines of communication between China and North Korea have broken down badly enough for either side to resort to force to make a point.
Technical Stuff
For the purposes of the map above, a militarized interstate dispute (MID) is a “set of interactions between or among states involving threats to use military force, displays of military force, or actual uses of military force.” Such interactions must also be government sanctioned in order to be considered MIDs. As a result, events like unsanctioned border incidents—which happen from time to time—are not included in the map above, unless they provoked an officially sanctioned military response.
Location data for disputes between 1993 and 2001 was drawn from the MID location dataset assembled by Alex Braithwaite, though some of the locations were subsequently modified. The location data for disputes after 2001, meanwhile, were manually generated by me. All locations are, of course, approximate. In some cases, location information about disputes was vague. In others, disputes occurred over a large area, so an approximate central location was chosen to represent the dispute.
What's Next?
I'm working on expanding the map to include more recent years. It will, however, be awhile before I have any major updates, as the current MID dataset ends in 2010. In order to add more recent disputes, I'm going to have to put the data together by hand, which is going to entail a fair bit of leg work.
Braithwaite, Alex. “MIDLOC: Introducing the Militarized Interstate Dispute Location dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 1 (2010): 91-98.
Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. "The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description." Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2004): 133-154.
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