Will China seize control of Second Thomas Shoal before December 31, 2014?

I recently joined the Good Judgement Project, which is a forecasting tournament in which people from around the world predict global events. Time permitting, I've decided to document some of my predictions and the rationale behind them.

Question: will China seize control of the Second Thomas Shoal before December 31, 2014?
Probability: 15 per cent

As I see it, there are essentially three ways for China to 'seize' control of the Second Thomas Shoal, and none are particularly likely. 

(1) The first possibility is that China will use force to expel the Filipino marines currently aboard the BRP Sierra Madre (which is the derelict ship the Philippines ran aground on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999). The probability that China will use direct force to remove Filipino forces is, however, fairly slim. The last major military-to-military engagement over an island in the South China Sea (SCS) was in 1988 when Chinese and Vietnamese forces fought over the Johnson South Reef -- leaving 70 Vietnamese sailors dead. While there have been numerous incidents in and around the SCS since, they have been largely limited to interactions between fishermen and civilian maritime authorities from the various contesting states. 

One major assault in the past 26 years means that the base probability of a direct Chinese assault on an foreign held island is really low (less than 5 per cent). 

It is worth noting, however, that China has become increasingly aggressive in the South China Sea in the past couple years, so that does up the chance of a direct assault slightly. 

(2) The second possibility is that Filipino forces abandon the Sierre Madre of their own volition and Chinese forces then move in. Given the nationalist rhetoric that has developed over the Spratly Islands, it is fairly unlikely that Philippine forces would simply up and leave. It would also be a major reversal of the Aquino government's current stance on the reef, and there doesn't seem to be any impetus for his government to go down such a road.
 
(3) The third possibility is that China's ongoing blockade of the shoal will force the Philippine marines to leave the Sierra Madre due to a lack of supplies. So far, however, the Philippines has successfully managed to circumvent the blockade and resupply its forces. There are even indications that the Philippines may be getting some intel/planning assistance from the U.S., as American planes have been seen monitoring resupply efforts. News stories about the Sierra Madre, like the NYT's profile of the ship, also suggest that the marines aboard the ship are able to do a fair amount of fishing, lessening the need for frequent resupply trips. 

While this last possibility seems like the most probable of the three possibilities identified above, it still seems unlikely, given that the Philippines has indicated that it wants to maintain a force on the Shoal and has demonstrated an ability to get by the Chinese blockade. 

The only other alternative I can think of is that the Filipino forces would abandon the Sierra Madre due to inclement weather, but the marines aboard the Sierra Madre weathered Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, so it would have to be a fairly powerful storm to force them off the ship. 

Taken together, the factors identified above suggest that the overall likelihood of China seizing the reef before December 31, 2014 is very slim, though not beyond the realm of possibility.