Prediction: 70 per cent chance Ashraf Ghani wins; 30 per cent chance Abdullah Abdullah wins
Preliminary results suggest that Ashraf Ghani won 56 per cent of the vote in the second round of balloting, after winning only 31 per cent of the vote in the first round. Abdullah Abdullah, meanwhile, captured 44 per cent of the vote in the second round, down from 45 per cent of the vote in the first round.
Due to widespread allegations of corruption and election tampering, an Independent Election Commission (composed of independent observers and overseen by the United Nations) is currently recounting ballots and invalidating those considered to be fraudulent.
The New York Times is reporting that roughly 2 of the 8 million ballots cast may be fraudulent. The consensus also seems to be that more of Ghani's votes will be tossed out than Abdullah's, as a suspicious portion of Ghani's gains between the first and second rounds occurred in unstable and poorly monitored region.
There is, as a result, some chance that the Independent Election Commission will invalidate enough Ghani votes to make Abdullah the winner. Doing some back of the envelope calculations, I mocked up the following matrix, showing the circumstances under which Abdullah could clinch a victory (highlighted in dark blue).
There is, as a result, some chance that the Independent Election Commission will invalidate enough Ghani votes to make Abdullah the winner. Doing some back of the envelope calculations, I mocked up the following matrix, showing the circumstances under which Abdullah could clinch a victory (highlighted in dark blue).
As the matrix shows, the circumstances under which Abdullah ends up with more votes than Ghani are fairly limited. If 2 million or less ballots are invalidated, at least 80 per cent of the votes discarded will have to be for Ghani in order for Abdullah to win (and probably more).
The chances that over 80 per cent of the invalidated ballots will belong to Ghani are slim, as both candidates have been accused of stuffing ballot boxes. It is, as as a result, likely that the preliminary results will be upheld and Ghani confirmed the winner.
*The above model makes two major assumptions. One, anywhere between 1 and 2 million ballots will be invalidated (for the sake of comparison, 1.3 million votes were invalidated in the 2009 election). There is, however, a chance that more than 2 million votes will be invalidated, which increases the range of circumstances under which Abdullah can win. Two, the majority of votes discarded will belong to Ghani. While this seems like a fairly safe assumption based on current reporting, there is always room for surprises.
*The above model makes two major assumptions. One, anywhere between 1 and 2 million ballots will be invalidated (for the sake of comparison, 1.3 million votes were invalidated in the 2009 election). There is, however, a chance that more than 2 million votes will be invalidated, which increases the range of circumstances under which Abdullah can win. Two, the majority of votes discarded will belong to Ghani. While this seems like a fairly safe assumption based on current reporting, there is always room for surprises.
No comments:
Post a Comment